Companies describe the rules that drive their numbers. This screen finds those sentences in filings, pairs each with the public series that measures the same rate, and tests whether the rule holds. Here is one filing, and what happened when its rule was tested.
Both are true. The question is how far apart they are, and whether that can be measured.
Each square is a sentence from a quarterly filing for the period ending 30 June 2026. A keyword locator flags the ones that state a rule. Hover over a coloured square to read it, click to keep it, or focus the map and use the arrow keys to step through them.
The keyword rules were tuned on IBKR. On sentences labelled afterwards they find nothing. These are the case for a language model at this step, which Stage 1 proposed and this build does not yet have.
The stated rule says customer cash earns the federal funds rate minus 0.50 points. The coral line is what IBKR actually paid on customer cash. Drag across the chart to read any quarter.
A pass-through of one means a one-point move in the federal funds rate moves the yield one point. The bars apply each measured slope to the move you choose. Click a bar to plot its quarters.
The test is a bet. Start with $1 and, each quarter, stake part of it on the rule falling short, using only what earlier quarters showed. If the rule holds, the wallet should not grow. Reaching $20 would clear 5%. Press play.
IBKR's own figure is total net interest income for a move in dollar rates and covers both sides of the balance sheet, so it is not the same quantity. It shows the company prices its exposure. What it does not do is tie any of it to the sentence that says the rate is passed through.
Each was found by review. Click a card to see why.